It will take almost 15 years for the Indian economy to recover from the losses suffered during the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) FY22 monetary and financial report.
“Assuming a real growth rate of -6.6% for 2020-21, 8.9% for 2021-22 and an assumed growth rate of 7.2% for 2022-23 and 7.5% thereafter, India will exceed COVID-19 losses in 2034-35,” the report, published on April 29, said.
The report, whose theme this year is “Recover and Rebuild” in the context of promoting a sustainable post-pandemic recovery and rising trend growth in the medium term, does not reflect the views of the central bank itself, but those of the taxpayers involved. in the Department of Economics and RBI Policy Research.
The assumption of a growth rate of 7.5% from next year is quite optimistic. The latest World Economic Outlook report from the International Monetary Fund forecasts India’s growth rate for FY24 at 6.9%. Even the RBI’s own monetary policy report, released on April 8, says structural models suggest FY24 GDP growth could be 6.3%.
Several independent economists forecast GDP growth next year and possibly beyond, closer to 6%. This would mean that losses incurred during the pandemic would take longer to recover.
In monetary terms, the output losses assumed by central bank officials in their estimates are Rs19.1 crore for FY21, Rs17.1 crore for FY22, and Rs16.4 crore for FY22. fiscal year 23.
India’s real GDP for FY22 is estimated at Rs 147.54 lakh crore.
“The dividends from the reforms introduced to counter the pre-COVID recession, as well as additional measures and initiatives during the pandemic, will help put the economy on a sustainable high-growth trajectory. The technological and behavioral changes caused by the pandemic could be a new normal that would not necessarily mimic pre-pandemic trends, but instead build on a more efficient, fairer, cleaner, and greener foundation,” the report adds.
In the report’s foreword, Governor Shaktikanta Das said it is not enough to simply stabilize the economy and get it back on track before the first wave. The task, Das said, was to create a “virtuous circle of increased opportunities” for entrepreneurs, corporations, and the tax authority.